H. R. McMaster, Trumps Ex-Sicherheitsberater, über Erfolge im Iran-Krieg und die Zukunft der Nato

00:00:06: Ladies and gentlemen, I have the great honor to welcome one of the most distinguished US military leaders in security experts HR McMaster.

00:00:16: Welcome to World War One Daily Lieutenant General.

00:00:20: or say it's a real pleasure to be with you dealing doc?

00:00:24: With pleasure.

00:00:25: before we dive into current world affairs let me introduce you with the words off the bestselling author and professor Peter Bergen.

00:00:32: Peter Bergin said about you Hey, George McMaster is the smartest and most capable military officer of his generation.

00:00:40: One who has not only led American victories on the battlefield but also holds a PhD in history.

00:00:49: now General McMaster you are both an accomplished tour and deep thinker.

00:00:55: You're West Point graduate retired United States Lieutenant General and you served as the twenty-fifth United States National Security Advisor.

00:01:07: To President

00:01:08: Trump,

00:01:09: and your longtime friend of our magazine I remember catching on the telephone during breaks off operation Iraqi freedom almost twenty years ago when he kindly granted us highly valuable insight into your counterinsurgency missions.

00:01:26: now it's great to have you back.

00:01:28: Let me suggest to focus on the hotspot of Iran.

00:01:36: When US President Trump waged war against Iran, he kicked the hornet's nest.

00:01:44: Since February twenty-eighths Iranians swarm out and sting its neighbors wherever they can.

00:01:51: What is it that surprised you most in terms of Iranian reaction?

00:01:59: Or I have to tell you, nothing surprised me.

00:02:02: And the way I think about it is that President Trump didn't start this war and there's just a latest campaign in a war that the Iranian regime started against The Great Satan as how they refered of United States Israel who they call the cancerous boil end their Arab neighbors in nineteen seventy nine beginning with taking US hostages against the United States, and what has been really a sustained effort by the Iranian regime to kick the united states out of the Middle East.

00:02:36: And extend hegemonic influence in the region surround Israel destroy Israel and kill all the Jews.

00:02:43: I mean that's Really?

00:02:44: Been their obsession since nineteen seventy nine.

00:02:48: It's part of the ideology this regime and so i see This campaign In context Of That you know, that forty seven year long war.

00:02:58: That Iran has been waging against the United States Israel and its Arab neighbors.

00:03:04: now in retrospect this siege on the Strait of Hormuz seems to be um You know?

00:03:10: The logical most effective reaction Iran would try to achieve.

00:03:14: And nevertheless it seems that President Trump didn't fully see that coming.

00:03:20: I mean at least that's the impression you get watching from the distance Would you say he has underestimated the consequences of the war.

00:03:30: Ors, I really don't think so!

00:03:33: And this is what's been reported that he was surprised by it.

00:03:37: but in our military we conduct an annual exercise about the closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

00:03:45: It involves up to thirty nations every single year and i think this was most likely a response from the Iranian regime.

00:03:55: Hey, the Iranian regime would not close the straight unless there was an existential threat to it.

00:04:00: Well clearly you know with that initial strike against the Iranian leadership That began this latest campaign in this forty seven year long war It became existential for them.

00:04:10: So remember?

00:04:11: It was not only the closing of the street But they fired drones and missiles at fourteen neighboring countries fourteen.

00:04:19: And so I think if there is a surprise maybe The surprise is Even the Gulf states who had been aiding and abetting them for years including the gutteries And to an extent even the Emirates Who did a lot of the banking?

00:04:35: For the Iranian regime.

00:04:36: so if ever there was a doubt about The nature of the Iranian threat not just United States in Israel, but also their Arab neighbors All those doubts were removed now.

00:04:47: They should have been moved a long time ago because Iran had been Applying the Hezbollah model two multiple countries in the region.

00:04:53: that's where they like.

00:04:55: in Lebanon, they build a militia outside of the government's control, Hezbollah in this case.

00:05:00: that can be turned against a weak government if that government acts against Iranian interests.

00:05:06: They've done this with the so-called Hastashabi militias in Iraq.

00:05:12: They have done this in Yemen with the Houthis and of course they enabled the Assad regime to end its serial episodes of mass homicide into Syrian civil war.

00:05:24: Iran has been really sponsoring these civil wars against their neighbors in the region as a way to keep the Arab world perpetually weak.

00:05:34: so they could extend this sort of land bridge to the Mediterranean, build a ring-of-fire around Israel and of course they lit that Ring Of Fire on October seventh

00:05:46: twenty three.

00:05:47: What I find remarkable in the many reactions this war caused is just recently that the United Arab Emirates now welcomed Israeli soldiers and their defense systems, like Iron Dome.

00:06:01: And they're actually operating on the territory of the United Arab Emirates.

00:06:07: It has never existed before, this is a total first.

00:06:12: Did that surprise you in some way or was it just a logical consequence of the Abraham Accords were signed in twenty-twenty?

00:06:23: I think its illogical consequences of recognizing that the region's security depends on really defeating Iran and defeating the Islamic Republic of Iran's ability to project power outside its borders.

00:06:36: Because now everybody is in the same situation as Israel, in terms of a threat from Iran's drone-and-missile strike complex this sort conventional wall they were building behind which they could then pursue nuclear weapon or even longer range missiles.

00:06:53: so i think there just recognition in escapable recognition after all that have been attacked that they have to work together.

00:07:00: Now, we're actually working together quite well in intelligence and sharing technologies even before this but it hasn't been out in the open that much so.

00:07:13: now I think what you are going see is a coalescing of this sort-of Gulf security apparatus an infrastructure.

00:07:21: This really was what United States has been pursuing along with Gulf states since the nineteen seventies.

00:07:27: You saw at play during the directed tax against Israel by Iran in april and october of twenty twenty four.

00:07:35: you saw that defensive network activated across all the gulf states working it out kind behind-the-scenes but shooting down these missiles uh... and shooting down his drones.

00:07:48: i think your gonna see this as a full spectrum kinda maybe not explicit.

00:07:54: The defensive coalition, but I think that's what you're going to see emerge out of this war is collective security in the Gulf.

00:08:01: That includes uh the Israelis and many of the Arab states.

00:08:07: Now What's remarkable?

00:08:09: And very typical one can say is um that President Trump keeps everybody guessing with his next moves.

00:08:17: You know some call him the master of chess But i will call them the Master Of Guess or guessing What is interesting to see.

00:08:25: there, somehow he seems to make spontaneous decisions.

00:08:32: Now you were his national security advisor so how much does he listen or did he listened to you and his closest advisors?

00:08:39: And what can we say about him making these decisions?

00:08:44: This was in the year of twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen years ago.

00:08:47: I have a book called War with Ourselves how we struggled against kind of, I would say the president's natural impulse toward thinking out loud and making a series of incremental decisions by presenting him first of all with the objectives.

00:09:07: The goals to confirm is this what you're trying to achieve?

00:09:10: And then once he did that We would bring him options and have structured conversations.

00:09:16: He learns through conversation about these particular options.

00:09:20: And behind those options were very well-developed plans that would integrate all elements of U.S.

00:09:26: national power and efforts of allies, partners

00:09:30: internationally.".

00:09:31: I think that's what was missing ours you know?

00:09:33: What happened?

00:09:34: is somebody convinced President Trump as he came in to the second term that his own staff—that's The National Security Council Staff, The National Economic Council Staff —was this so called deep state you know, those who create all this bureaucratic inertia that was preventing him from making faster progress on his agenda.

00:09:56: That wasn't the case really.

00:09:58: your own staff is what can help drive your agenda.

00:10:01: so this structured decision-making I think it's really what's missing and that's why you see such i think counterproductive behavior!

00:10:09: You know?

00:10:10: It shouldn't come as a surprise if you insult your allies a little bit reluctant to give you the help.

00:10:19: So I think, A lot of what you've seen in terms of...I would call it self-defeating behavior comes from that lack of decision making structure That lack of discipline and decision making.

00:10:32: And once decisions are made You need staff To integrate implementation Of those decisions To align with your doing diplomatically With what you have chosen to do militarily To be really strong and consistent communications.

00:10:48: And what I think has been most disappointing about the course of this war is a degree to which there have been these inconsistent, unserious at times and bombastic kind of communications that undermines international support for which everybody should be behind.

00:11:08: The Iranian regime has conducted you know about one hundred twenty—I think it's number—assassinations in Europe You know, and so I think this is a the largest sponsor of transnational terrorism in the world.

00:11:25: And also Iran has helped to create The refugee crisis that's affected Europe effected European politics with essentially especially the Syrian civil war and their role In the mass murders and the refugee crisis.

00:11:40: So you know what anyway?

00:11:42: Just i really am.

00:11:44: i regret.

00:11:45: i regret that the president isn't taking advantage of the potential, having a more structured decision-making policy making process to make that decision but also for implementation.

00:11:58: What I always highly admired in your career and what earned you reputation as an highly respected innovative officer is that you successfully fought.

00:12:11: Iraqi insurgency both in South Baghdad was important, that's what you told me at the time.

00:12:19: You know?

00:12:20: It is important to read the enemy's

00:12:22: mind.".

00:12:23: Now if we are trying to read minds of elites in the Revolutionary Guard who seem to be in charge around these days... What do we need to know about how they think and function so as kind of understand their next

00:12:37: moves?".

00:12:38: Well I think first thing to understand it this people were permanently hostile to the United States, again they're The Great Satan Israel.

00:12:48: They are Arab neighbors and the West broadly.

00:12:51: so until there is a change in fundamental nature of that government There's not going be peace for people from around the region And security for Iranian people.

00:13:02: Second thing is that aspirations and attitudes Of this regime Are not compatible Not consistent with the aspirations and attitudes of a vast majority of Iranians.

00:13:16: There's that gap there, therefore they rely on repressive apparatus to maintain

00:13:24: power.".

00:13:25: This is the Basij right?

00:13:27: These people who come out and beat people into submission have committed mass murder.

00:13:31: we think of forty thousand in a forty-eight hour period In January And of course at the IRGC.

00:13:39: The other thing to know about them is that they're desperate.

00:13:43: They are desperate to maintain their grip on power, in part because they control the whole economy and have enriched themselves.

00:13:51: Mushtaba if he's still alive you know his bunker somewhere?

00:13:56: He has tens of millions of dollars off shore in banks.

00:14:01: so it was Golubov.

00:14:02: Goluboff is a so-called Speaker of Parliament is one of the most corrupt people in Iran, and they sit atop these bunyads or collectives that control the economy.

00:14:12: They don't want to give

00:14:13: up.".

00:14:13: And by the way...they all realize now after they've committed a mass murder with so many people—the forty thousand people are so in January—the Iranian people were not going be kind to them if they gave up power!

00:14:26: So…they're desperate to maintain their grip on power we should know about.

00:14:30: They're driven by the ideology of revolution, they are permanently hostile and out-of-step with their own population.

00:14:37: Once you understand that then kind see some outlines.

00:14:41: what are prospects for peace?

00:14:43: Well as I mentioned there's no prospect for peace until there is a fundamental change in nature or regime.

00:14:52: it also should make realize best approach to drive a wedge further between the Iranian people and the government to distinguish quite clearly in your actions, And in your rhetoric.

00:15:06: In you're language that this is not a war against the Iranian People.

00:15:11: This Is A War That Could Free The Iranian People From This Repressive Regime Under Which They Have Suffered For So Long.

00:15:20: If You Remember Since Twenty Sixteen To Twenty Seventeen There've Been Massive Annual Protests Against This Regime All Of Which Have Been Brutally uh put down.

00:15:31: what is the path ahead though?

00:15:33: i mean this seems to be extremely difficult to break that regime even though it's small in numbers compared to them plus ninety million um population of iran.

00:15:44: What does the path do?

00:15:46: break that regimen order for people who take over and hopefully establish more friendly government?

00:15:55: Or I think it's gonna have to be a continuation of this campaign in combination.

00:15:58: You know, This is the military campaign To continue to reduce The Iranian state's ability to project power outside its borders.

00:16:07: Uh...this might be forcing open the Strait of Hormuz.

00:16:11: i think that really what's going to happen?

00:16:13: I believe that U.S Military especially if joined by a broader coalition can certainly do That at an acceptable cost but not without risk.

00:16:21: and costs Certainly.

00:16:23: And then, I think continued attacks against the repressive arms of the regime combined.

00:16:29: Then with economic pressure or it's affecting obviously people around the world that the interruption and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:16:38: but now the Iranian regime is losing about four hundred fifty million dollars a day in oil exports by the way its running out capacity for storage putting oil like in teacups probably, you know at this moment.

00:16:54: Which would mean that the oil wells will eventually be damaged?

00:16:59: Absolutely!

00:17:00: So what do these authoritarian regimes need?

00:17:04: as they historian and scholar Stephen Coch and the Scholar of Stalin has noted... They need five things to stay in power-they need cash flow, security forces, control over life chances.

00:17:17: You know, it's a coercive control repeal because they have to sign up.

00:17:23: To support the regime They need stories to tell their people right?

00:17:27: Hey It's a Zionist crusader conspiracy to come after us.

00:17:31: And then and then finally there needs some kind of an international system to sustain them.

00:17:36: I think The next phase in the campaign should be to fully isolate the regime from these sources Of strength and support cut off the cash flow weaken the security forces also i think strengthen the population with all sorts of support, but then isolate them from international support.

00:17:53: I mean China is keeping that one life-support right?

00:17:56: With purchases of energy But also providing them with a lot of the precursor chemicals and so forth That they need for solid rocket fuel electronic components.

00:18:07: We know that Russia Is shipping drone components Right now across to Caspian Sea to help them deepen their arsenal for drones and so forth.

00:18:18: So I think work on that from the outside in, look at Iranian context of this broader competition with what i would call an axis of aggressors which includes the two revanchious powers on the Eurasian landmass of China and Russia.

00:18:33: This is why the outcome Of The War With Iran Is Directly Related To European Security.

00:18:40: Remember It Was The Iranians who provided the drones to the Russians for their onslaught against Ukrainian people.

00:18:50: So I think we have to recognize that now's the time, and I hope President Trump sees this as well—to strengthen transatlantic relations across a free world…and recognize it is a consequential competition because you know what?

00:19:05: If the Iranian regime was finished say if we could envision And there is a regime in place that better reflects the attitudes of their people, the aspirations of their People.

00:19:18: What happens to Russian influence?

00:19:20: In the Middle East it goes to zero.

00:19:22: what happens to Chinese influence?

00:19:24: in the middle east?

00:19:25: It goes to Zero.

00:19:26: and you know what The United States and others wind up with the keys To China's gas station which I think might be critical to preventing these crises That we've seen these wars in Europe and the Middle East from cascading further into the Indo-Pacific region.

00:19:44: If we focus briefly on the Ukraine war, you just mentioned it there is an impact of course.

00:19:49: some people say no its good for Putin.

00:19:51: he can sell more oil cheaper gas.

00:19:55: others saying oh he's gonna suffer from this.

00:19:59: What is remarkable, I think as a quote by you know the Finland's president Alexander stoop.

00:20:05: He said enough to Ukrainian.

00:20:06: drones have hit targets nearly a thousand miles from Ukrainian border into Russia.

00:20:12: he said that The tide is turning in favor of Ukraine.

00:20:16: and he added we need Ukraine more than Ukraine needs us Us meaning the Europeans.

00:20:25: um Would you agree with that?

00:20:27: Does Kiev now offer the world weapons to work and has an advantage, battle-proofed.

00:20:34: Is it something where you would agree that the tide is turning or a little bit exaggerated?

00:20:42: I think the tide's turning but what we need to help that tide turn was more pressure on Russia which as Stu mentioned who's very insightful person rushes under tremendous economic pressure.

00:20:55: Putin is destroyed his economy you have inflation, well over twenty percent.

00:20:59: You have a stagnant economy.

00:21:01: he's sitting on piles of cash that he can't convert and significantly He has a labor shortage because they've taken it over a million seriously wounded and killed in this war And there sustaining casualties some days up to fifteen hundred Killed and wounded at day for these meager gains as we're trying take control of all the Donbass.

00:21:25: So I think now is the time for more pressure on Russia, financial pressure economic pressure and especially or sustained support for Ukraine.

00:21:34: it's a great thing that the barrier has now removed in the form of Hungary's leader you know former leader Orban to provide the financial support for the EU that Ukraine needs.

00:21:46: And Now i think what we need Is this sustained flow of munitions.

00:21:50: What You See With Ukraine is unbelievable valor, heroism combined with astounding innovation.

00:21:58: As you mentioned these longer-range drone capabilities.

00:22:01: but also Ukrainians are providing expertise to the Gulf states –the Arab States–with the counterdrone capabilities and they've sent teams—you know —to the Emiratis, to the Kuwaiti's… to the gutteries... To the Saudis!

00:22:18: So Yes, they are a net benefit to European security and in large measure because you know that also I think devastated the Russian army.

00:22:31: The Russian Conventional Army is as terrible state And they've weakened it.

00:22:36: at this point we have remember the Wagner group offensive toward Moscow.

00:22:42: I mean this is an ex-hotdog salesman, you know put together a mercenary group and marched on Moscow.

00:22:48: And it revealed the weakness of Russia outside that very specific Ukrainian theater.

00:22:55: so Russia isn't in its weak position because if Ukraine...and i think we should see them as security provider really for Europe.

00:23:04: A word about nature, where does this stand the Transatlantic Alliance today?

00:23:09: Because we read every day lots of stories about the breakup.

00:23:14: The transatlantic break up there were insults.

00:23:17: people are insulted they feel insulted in Europe About some remarks that President Trump made.

00:23:26: Now he's announced that he wants to withdraw five-thousand US troops, you were stationed in Bamberg Germany I think in the early nineties.

00:23:35: What does that mean?

00:23:36: That withdrawal?

00:23:37: is it substantial or if its more symbolic where is the transatlantic collision heading?

00:23:45: Or as i think it is substantial and regrettable because what we've learned after two devastating world wars of the twentieth century security came from strong alliances forward-positioned US forces.

00:24:01: as part of those alliances has worked, it's prevented great power conflict for eighty years.

00:24:07: So why abandon that now?

00:24:09: And I think the withdrawal of those troops this is The Second Cavalry Regiment in Vilsack Germany withdraws troops who are positioned next to a Great Training Area where they can keep very high degree of readiness and they can respond any kind of threats force on the ground immediately, which I think it has a very important deterrent value.

00:24:34: But also bolsters the ability of NATO to fight together and so i am worried about that.

00:24:44: we have to understand That alot Americans feel aggrieved by the lack of burden sharing in Europe after The Cold War.

00:24:54: Remember, I mean gosh, Europe was about seventeen percent Of the world's GDP and About fifty percent of the World social spending.

00:25:04: so American taxpayers looked at that And saw the US covering defense bills In europe and thereby underwriting European Social programs.

00:25:13: That Was the real you know?

00:25:15: The Real anger the President Trump tapped into and voiced.

00:25:18: But he won this.

00:25:20: This is what I want to say, you know?

00:25:22: Europe is increasing its defense spending.

00:25:25: Europe is sharing more and more of the defense burden.

00:25:28: And by the way if you look at how the war in Ukraine has revealed the lack of capacity in our defense industrial base, the fragility of supply chains many of which are controlled by China a hostile authoritarian power we have a lot of work together.

00:25:45: We need everybody I think to strengthen our security, but or as i'm confident that we're gonna get past this.

00:25:52: I really do.

00:25:54: You mentioned the insults there were.

00:25:56: they were significant?

00:25:57: I mean you know I fought alongside European soldiers for many Many years and I was deeply grateful For the sacrifices in the risk They were taking along side us after The United States Was attacked on September eleventh.

00:26:11: two thousand one.

00:26:12: so.

00:26:12: when president Trump says oh they weren't There for Us yes Europeans were there for us.

00:26:17: and when he combines that with I think which this you know, He says things out loud.

00:26:23: It says things to be a provocateur but they have real impact.

00:26:27: When he threatens to invade Greenland You know Which is sovereign territory of Denmark?

00:26:33: And by the way, Denmark took more casualties per capita than any European country in Afghanistan where They had a very tough fight With their battle group in Helmand province.

00:26:45: so Hey, I'm not trying to brush this under the carpet or it's a real problem.

00:26:49: We know It's much easier to destroy trust than build back.

00:26:53: but i feel confident because hey The threats aren't going away From the axis of aggressors from china and russia And oars and i don't mean To sound arrogant by This?

00:27:04: Don't think there's A substitute for us leadership Because who is gonna lead europe Without the united states?

00:27:10: You know, I don't think the United States can be that glue.

00:27:14: That helps keep the whole family together.

00:27:16: Otherwise there will be sub regions that are pretty.

00:27:20: you're pretty tight and cohesive like i would say The Nordic states to Baltic states in Poland.

00:27:26: But there'll be others who will be skeptical about maybe German leadership or French leadership Or fill-in-the-blank right so?

00:27:33: I think the nuclear umbrella.

00:27:36: There's additional capabilities, you know strategic logistics and transportation capabilities, communications intelligence.

00:27:45: you know missile defense.

00:27:46: I mean all of that.

00:27:48: You know can you imagine the US unplugging?

00:27:50: it would weaken all over us?

00:27:53: And i think in the United States we under appreciate some of the less tangible benefits of the alliance such as overflight basing and response times associated with.

00:28:05: So if we were to replicate what NATO has in the U.S.. That doesn't make any sense.

00:28:08: by the way It's a heck of a lot cheaper To keep those five thousand troops and Vilsack, Germany then to move them too.

00:28:15: I don't know Fort Benning Georgia wherever they're gonna go.

00:28:18: so i think If American leadership just explains the american people you better The benefits of nato People have.

00:28:26: our generation or as we kind of We believe it right because we grew up in this era You know?

00:28:31: I think we have to explain to the younger generation the benefit of The Alliance and begin to rebuild this trust, which I believe we can do.

00:28:39: Actually, I think were on the cusp if you want to call it Cold War II because of the weakness of this axis of aggressors—if could just strengthen ourselves and prove that Vladimir Putin is wrong?

00:28:54: Vladimir Putin thinks Europe and United States are weak decadent and divided.

00:29:01: We should act to prove him wrong.

00:29:05: Our time is almost up.

00:29:07: Very grateful for what you've given us, and I know when you're in high demand.

00:29:12: but let me just ask one last question.

00:29:15: if we zoom out And look at the warfare The evolvement of Rome was a revolution of warfare.

00:29:23: You were highly effective tank officer fighting in the Gulf War In early nineties.

00:29:27: Now We see completely new battlefield With drones evolving and lightning speed, we have just witnessed a precision war.

00:29:36: Thirteen thousand targets were hit.

00:29:39: there was relatively small collateral damage.

00:29:45: What is their most remarkable change in war strategy since your days?

00:29:49: In the Gulf War thirty five years ago what would you say?

00:29:53: Or what I would say is there have been tremendous changes, but also continuities which are why much of the fighting in Ukraine looks like World War One as well.

00:30:01: And so really what you're seeing is increased transparency at the battlefield associated with drones and manned aircrafts especially low earth orbit combined for big data analytics.

00:30:12: now associated artificial intelligence related technologies compute power algorithms that can provide a high degree situation understanding combined with this long-range precision strike.

00:30:24: So, what this means for the future is that the first phase of the next war will be a phase designed to blind and deceive the enemy and thereby restore freedom of movement and action for military forces across all

00:30:40: domains."

00:30:41: And that's going include low earth orbit warfare in space.

00:30:47: it's gonna include cyberwarfare electromagnetic warfare.

00:30:52: So, I think that's what we're learning is the next fight will be to ensure that the enemy cannot see everything within depth of the area of operations.

00:31:05: Wonderful!

00:31:05: Thank you so much for your time and i wish a great week just started

00:31:13: now.